columbia basin climate

12). Atmosphere Ocean 51. How essential is hydrologic model calibration to seasonal streamflow forecasting? Each product is provided as a gridded file (one file for each variable and calendar month) in ASCII format. Three base flow parameters (Ds max, Ds, Ws) associated with the non-linear baseflow curve from the third soil layer (Liang et al., Citation1994) were used to calibrate the model. Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below: If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. The PET is shown to increase dramatically over most of the domain (primarily because of warming in the scenarios), whereas AET shows widespread declines east of the Cascade Range. The macroscale hydrologic model used in the CBCCSP is the VIC model (Cherkauer & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Liang, Lettenmaier, Wood, & Burges, Citation1994) implemented at 1/16 degree resolution. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. Additional meteorological forcings needed for hydrologic model simulations (e.g., net incoming long- and shortwave radiation, dew point temperature, etc.) Lows in the lower to mid 30s. 2010. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable public resource that has dramatically reduced costs in a number of high-visibility studies in the PNW and western United States focused on technical coordination and planning. Since 2014, the RDI has engaged in applied research related to community climate adaptation. Other impacts, such as changes in soil moisture dynamics are also apparent in the simulations. %PDF-1.6 % All of the meteorological forcing data, except wind speed, are reproduced in the output files produced by the hydrologic model. unpublished manuscript). Temperature and precipitation vary greatly with elevation, but in the central basin January average daily temperatures are between about 25 and 30 F (4 and 1 C), and July averages are mostly between 70 and 75 F (21 and 24 C). This was coordinated through the River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC), a sub-committee of the Joint Operating Committee which was established through direct funding Memorandum of Agreements between BPA, Reclamation, and the USACE. The CBCCSP, in particular, provided access to additional scenarios and downscaling methods that provided a range of hydrologic outcomes associated with uncertainty in the climate projections, which the WACCIA assessments largely did not. Using the VIC model, Mote, Hamlet, Clark, and Lettenmaier (Citation2005), Mote, Hamlet, and Salath (Citation2008), for example, showed excellent reproduction of observed trends in 1 April SWE over both the PNW as a whole and over the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington. Twenty-one daily time-step output variables were archived for the VIC simulations (Table 2). Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine. 95 0 obj <> endobj A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate, A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain, Constructing retrospective gridded daily precipitation and temperature datasets for the conterminous United States, Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State, Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections, The role of transboundary agreements in the Columbia River basin: An integrated assessment in the context of historic development, climate, and evolving water policy, Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. The city's average temperature is 57 F (14 C). July temperatures hover in the 90s, with several afternoons during the summer pushing the thermometer reading as high as 100 to 105 degrees. Data from the CBCCSP are currently supporting two CIG studies funded by the LCCs and the CSC, including a study of impacts to wetlands in the PNW (funded by the North Pacific LCC and the PNWCSC) and a study assessing climatic and hydrologic extremes and their effects on ecosystems over the western United States (funded by the PNWCSC). Act relating to water resource management in the Columbia river basin, H.R. Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Register to receive personalised research and resources by email. 5 Examples of summary plots for monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) (mm) (averaged over the upstream basin area) and raw streamflow not adjusted for bias (cubic metres per second) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon. 7). 8). Many locations could see increases of 100% or more in the 50-year and 100-year flood magnitude, with some smaller tributaries potentially seeing increases of as much as 175%. Tague, Grant, Farrell, Choate and Jefferson (Citation2008) showed analogous differences between watersheds in the PNW based on the relative contribution of groundwater to base flows. Typical month of historical flooding events is shown by the colour of the dots in the scatter plot (legend inset in the upper right corner), by permission of I. Tohver, A.F. These results point to extensive, landscape-scale transformations in hydrologic behaviour associated with climate change. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades? (For example, Dworshak and Milner are nested within the larger Ice Harbor sub-basin.). The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. One of the first major efforts of CIG in this area was focused on the preparation of a detailed and comprehensive regional assessment report for the PNW for the 1999 National Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in the United States (ultimately published as Mote et al., Citation2003). A number of regional partners provided recommendations for streamflow locations and other in-kind support including Jesse Abner (MDNR), Steve Running (University of Montana), Hal Anderson (IDWR) Levi Brekke, Pat McGrane and John Roache (USBR), Carolyn Fitzgerald (Seattle District USACE), Seshu Vaddey and Randy Wortman (Portland District USACE). John Day basin century climate change: +1.5 degF day temperature, +3.2 degF night temperature, -0.4 inch (2%) less precipitation. Explore the basics of climate sciencearrow_forward, Explore detailed climate projectionsarrow_forward, Learn more about the impacts of climate changearrow_forward, Learn how the climate is changing in your areaarrow_forward, Learn how our region is responding, and how you can be part of the solutionarrow_forward, The extent of glaciers in 1984, 2000, and 2021. In much of the CRB, however, summer AET is water limited (i.e., there is abundant surface energy to evaporate whatever water is available), and changes in AET are dominated by decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios, which effectively decreases summer AET in most cases. Pink bands show the range of nine or ten HD climate change scenarios for B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. Both floods (Q100) and extreme 7-day low flows (7Q10) increase in intensity for most of the river sites simulated. The same procedure is followed for estimating extreme low flows, except the lowest 7-day flow is extracted for each water year, and 7Q10 (the extreme 7-day low flow with a return interval of 10 years) is estimated. Highs around 80. In this section we provide an overview of the methods associated with the primary elements of the CBCCSP. Explore this website to learn more about the changes were expecting, and what we can do about them. Gusts up to 20 mph in the morning. The top two panels show the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) (left) and R 2 (right) for the calibration period, while the two lower panels show NSE (left) and R 2 (right) for the validation period. Citation2000) were selected as the basis for the study because they provide a) a wide range of plausible outcomes while also reflecting some potential GHG mitigation by the end of the twenty-first century, and b) most of the approximately 20 GCM projections associated with the CMIP3 archived runs from both emission scenarios (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. How do I view content? 12 Changes in monthly mean total column soil moisture (OctoberSeptember) for three representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (centre), and Yakima River at Parker (right). Registered in England & Wales No. Did you know that with a free Taylor & Francis Online account you can gain access to the following benefits? Additional streamflow sites were routed from the primary VIC data, and water temperature simulations for a number of additional sites were based on temperature projections from the study. In this case only modified flows (2000-level modified flows obtained from the BPA (Crook, Citation1993)) were used to train the bias-correction procedure, even if naturalized flows were also available. Following the WACCIA in 2009, the WA Legislature, via the Act relating to State Agency Climate Leadership (2009), charged WDOE and other state agencies with preparing a first climate change adaptation plan for WA. 6). Columbia Basin Dive Rescue has been serving the community for almost 50 years. (Citation2010) also updated the soil depth map using a more sophisticated approach developed for the DHSVM (Wigmosta, Nijssen, Storck, & Lettenmaier, Citation2002; Wigmosta, Vail, & Lettenmaier, Citation1994) that varies soil depth with elevation. Pink bands show the range of nine or ten HD climate change scenarios for B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. 6. Bias-correction procedures provide an alternative statistical approach that effectively avoids these difficulties (Shi, Wood, & Lettenmaier, Citation2008; Snover et al., Citation2003). Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA, Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model, A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios, Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California, Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors, The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study, Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Naturalized streamflow data were used exclusively in the CBCCSP to calibrate the hydrologic model. In addition, some observed streamflow data are suitable for use as natural data if the effects of storage and diversions are relatively small (e.g., for the USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network streamflow sites). Daily streamflow data from the CD and HD downscaling methods are first processed to extract the peak daily flow in each water year of the simulations (91 years). Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. 8 Monthly mean hydrographs not adjusted for bias (water year: OctoberSeptember) for four representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (upper left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (upper right), Yakima River at Parker (lower left), and the Chehalis River at Grand Mound (lower right). The largest reductions in low flows occur west of the Cascade Range in the simulations. Treaty Relating to Cooperative Development of the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin, United States of AmericaCanada, January 17, 1961September 16, 1964, 15 U.S.T.